Australia CPI Data to Support Rate Cut Case

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Overig advies 24/01/2015 09:37
SYDNEY--Australia's central bank is on course to join some of its global counterparts in cutting interest rates to boost growth, with fourth quarter inflation data next Wednesday set to be a catalyst, economists say.

A survey of 11 banks by The Wall Street Journal on Friday showed the consumer-price index rising 0.3% from the previous quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5% in the third quarter. On-year, the CPI is expected to be up 1.8%.

Core inflation, which removes volatility from quarter-to-quarter data, is likely to be 0.5%, putting it around 2.1% on-year, at the bottom end of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2%-3% target band.

The forecast reflects the impact of lower oil and food prices, a sluggish domestic economy and weak wages growth. Economists say a soft inflation reading is needed so that the RBA can present a cut in interest rates as a positive response to falling prices, rather than couching it in terms of a problem with the economy, which might dent business and consumer confidence.

"They (RBA) are not there to panic people...they've got to do it in a positive light," said Warren Hogan, chief economist at ANZ Bank, which is forecasting a cut in interest rates in March.

Westpac Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan says conditions are in place for the RBA to cut interest rates in February and March, providing a material boost to the economy. Low inflation will be a critical element of the RBA's reasons for cutting rates, he said.

"They will be lowering interest rates to get a positive response from the economy. Part of that is being supportive of confidence," Mr. Hanlan said.

Official interest rates have been held at a record low 2.5% since August 2013 as the economy has slowed in line with the end of decadelong mining investment boom. With workers leaving completed mine projects, unemployment has nudged up to its highest level in a decade.

Recent monthly employment data hint of returning strength, but it is too early to tell if the job market is turning up. Falling commodity prices, including a 50% drop in the value of iron ore, the country's biggest export, suggest the road back to stronger, job creating, economic growth will be a labored one.

Michael Blythe, chief economist at the Commonwealth Bank, said the RBA can wait given recent signs that job creation is starting to improve. He expects the next move in rates to come in early 2016.

Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com



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