James Bloor Interview with Horizon Copper's CEO Erfan Kazemi

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Dag advies 11/06/2023 05:41
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Vanuit ons netwerk werden wij getipt op deze video.

De aandelen Horizon Copper krijgen eind deze maand begin juli 2023 een notering op de Toronto TSX.
beluister deze link en ga naar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUngJxztkFw

- Copper mining profits top $100 billion a year, but where are the new mines?

A recent presentation by S&P Global Market Intelligence mining and metals team featured a couple of graphs that crystalize the fundamental challenges facing copper mine supply.

Mitzi Sumangil, associate analyst at the US-based research firm, presented a graph showing the yawning gap between copper mining companies’ profits and capital spending.

Despite two consecutive years of bumper topline earnings north of $100 billion, expansion budgets haven’t budged, hovering in the early double digit billions. Barely more than 12% of ebitda, versus a long term average of more than double that.

Expansion capital is also focused on brownfield projects, with the number of new mines over the last four years adding up to 15 compared to 32 over the same period a decade ago when profits were below $60 and on a clear downward trend.

In 2015, when copper mining profits barely reached above $30 billion across the industry 12 mines went into production thanks to robust spending in the years preceding the bottom of the cycle.

Sumangil says miners have become more conservative when it comes to investing in new projects and the trend continues to hold true:

“Companies have been recently focusing on extending the life of mines, especially of those high-grade ones and already profitable projects because, let’s be honest, it takes a lot of time to develop something new and it takes a lot of administrative effort.”

On the last point, Sumangil showed another graph detailing the lead time from discovery to production for the average copper mine. Which is 16.2 years. Stumble upon a turquoise outcropping today and you’ll start seeing the money roll in in 2040.

Sumangil says even when accounting for concentrate capacity from uncommitted projects raw copper will still fall short of demand in scarcely two years:

“This is a very ominous broader view of copper supply, and we expect it to be only worsened by stunted major discoveries, tight copper exploration budgets and of course, time-consuming exploration work.”

The bank is advising investors and consumers to start purchasing soon while a weak macroeconomic backdrop keeps prices at around $8,300 a ton. Citi said copper may dip further in the short term, but should begin rallying within six to 12 months, topping out at about $15,000 in 2025 under the most bullish scenario.

Copper soared to a record of nearly $11,000 in early 2022, as a surge in demand during the pandemic left the industry critically low on stock and the war in Ukraine stoked fears over supplies from Russia. During the rally, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Trafigura Group predicted the green energy revolution would drive prices much higher still, but so far that’s been more than offset by China’s tepid post-lockdown recovery, an industrial recession in Europe and a rising interest rates.

Copper is booming en in Europe, some news is coming. But about shares!?

The video over Horizon Copper give you a new vision over Copper.
Listen to James Bloor Interview, with Horizon Copper's CEO Erfan Kazemi

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