Anheuser-Busch InBev reports First Quarter 2019 results

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Algemeen advies 07/05/2019 08:35
The enclosed information constitutes regulated information as defined in the Belgian Royal Decree of 14 November 2007 regarding the duties of issuers of financial instruments which have been admitted for trading on a regulated market.
Except where otherwise stated, the comments below are based on organic growth figures and refer to 1Q19 versus the same period of last year. For important disclaimers and more information on 2018 Restated and the Reference Base, please refer to page 13.

HIGHLIGHTS
• Momentum continued from 4Q18 into 1Q19 with healthy volume growth of 1.3%, revenue growth of 5.9% and EBITDA growth of 8.2% with margin expansion of 86 bps
• Ongoing success of our premiumization strategy supporting top and bottom line growth with global brand revenue growth of 8.5% (14.0% outside of the brands’ home markets) and High End Company revenue growth of almost 20%
• Double digit volume growth in Brazil in both our beer and non-beer businesses, outperforming the industry in both categories
• Continued market share trend improvement in the US, with the best quarterly market share trend performance since 4Q12 led by our premiumization and innovation initiatives
• We continue to make good progress toward our ambitious 2025 sustainability goals, reducing carbon emissions across our value chain by 4.5% over the last year KEY FIGURES
• Revenue: Revenue grew by 5.9% in the quarter, with revenue per hl growth of 4.6%, driven by healthy volume growth, global premiumization and revenue management initiatives
• Volume: Total volumes grew by 1.3%, with own beer volumes up 1.0% and non-beer volumes up 4.9%
• Global Brands: Combined revenues of our three global brands, Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona, grew by 8.5% globally, and by 14.0% outside of their respective home markets
• Cost of Sales (CoS): CoS increased by 6.0% in 1Q19 and by 4.6% on a per hl basis
• EBITDA: EBITDA increased by 8.2% in the quarter, with EBITDA margin expansion of 86 bps to 39.6%, as a result of top-line growth and enhanced by premiumization and ongoing cost discipline
• Net finance results: Net finance costs (excluding non-recurring net finance results) were 363 million USD in 1Q19 compared to 1 577 million USD in 1Q18. The improvement was predominantly due to a mark-to-market gain of 951 million USD in 1Q19 linked to the hedging of our share-based payment programs, compared to a loss of 242 million USD in 1Q18, resulting in a swing of 1 193 million USD
• Income taxes: Normalized effective tax rate (ETR) decreased to 20.1% in 1Q19 from 28.0% in 1Q18. Excluding the impact of gains relating to the hedging of our share-based payment programs, our normalized ETR was 27.7% in 1Q19 as compared to 25.4% in 1Q18
• Profit: Normalized profit attributable to equity holders of AB InBev was 2 516 million USD in 1Q19 versus 1 443 million USD in 1Q18. Underlying profit (normalized profit attributable to equity holders of AB InBev excluding mark-to-market gains linked to the hedging of our share-based payment programs and the impact of hyperinflation) was 1 572 million USD in 1Q19 as compared to 1 685 million USD in 1Q18
• Earnings per share (EPS): Normalized EPS in 1Q19 was 1.27 USD, an increase from 0.73 USD in 1Q18, positively impacted by mark-to-market gains linked to the hedging of our share-based payment programs. Underlying EPS (normalized EPS excluding mark-to-market gains linked to the hedging of our share-based payment programs and the impact of hyperinflation) was 0.79 USD in 1Q19, a decrease from 0.85 USD in 1Q18, as our strong performance was more than offset by the negative impact of unfavorable currency translation effects
• Combination with SAB: The business integration resulted in synergies and cost savings of 100 million USD in 1Q19. We have now delivered 3 038 million USD of the expected 3.2 billion USD synergies and cost savings on a constant currency basis as of August 2016

Figure 1. Consolidated performance (million USD)
1Q18 1Q18 1Q19 Organic
Restated Reference Base growth
Total Volumes (thousand hls) 134 831 134 831 133 462 1.3%
AB InBev own beer 118 351 118 351 117 016 1.0%
Non-beer volumes 15 342 15 342 15 551 4.9%
Third party products 1 138 1 138 895 -20.7%
Revenue 13 095 13 090 12 589 5.9%
Gross profit 8 094 8 086 7 714 5.8%
Gross margin 61.8% 61.8% 61.3% -5 bps
Normalized EBITDA 5 126 5 120 4 989 8.2%
Normalized EBITDA margin 39.1% 39.1% 39.6% 86 bps
Normalized EBIT 3 960 3 955 3 838 8.9%
Normalized EBIT margin 30.2% 30.2% 30.5% 57 bps
Profit attributable to equity holders of AB InBev 1 019 3 571
Normalized profit attributable to equity holders of AB InBev 1 443 2 516
Underlying profit attributable to equity holders of AB InBev 1 685 1 572
Earnings per share (USD) 0.52 1.80
Normalized earnings per share (USD) 0.73 1.27
Underlying earnings per share (USD) 0.85 0.79

Figure 2. Volumes (thousand hls)
1Q18 Scope Organic 1Q19
Reference Base growth Total Volume Own beer volume
North America 24 814 - - 292 24 522 -1.2% -1.2%
Middle America 30 738 - 54 - 171 30 513 -0.6% -1.2%
Europe Middle East & Africa 20 549 -2 812 419 18 156 2.4% 2.4%
South America 34 088 167 2 013 36 268 5.9% 5.6%
Asia Pacific 24 296 - - 310 23 986 -1.3% -0.3%
Global Export and Holding Companies 346 -346 16 16 - -
AB InBev Worldwide 134 831 -3 045 1 676 133 462 1.3% 1.0%

MANAGEMENT COMMENTS
2019 is off to a strong start as we accelerated our momentum from 4Q18 into a solid 1Q19 performance.
Revenue grew by 5.9% driven by volume growth of 1.3% (own beer +1.0%, non-beer +4.9%) and revenu per hl growth of 4.6%, in line with our guidance for more balanced top-line growth.
The top-line result was driven by healthy performances in several of our key markets, including Brazil,
China, the US, Europe, Colombia and Nigeria. We saw especially strong volume growth from markets such as Brazil, Nigeria, Europe, Peru and Colombia. This was partially offset by softer volume results in markets such as South Africa and Argentina, where the consumer remains under pressure due to challenging macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, our results were held back by the later timing of the Easter holiday in markets for which this is an important consumption occasion, including the US, Mexico, Colombia, South Africa and Australia. We expect this impact to normalize on a half year basis.
Brazil led the way in volume growth this quarter, with both its beer and non-beer businesses growing by double digits, outperforming the industry. We grew volume across all segments of our portfolio, and we have already seen meaningful contributions from recent innovations and line extensions including Skol Puro Malte and our affordable beers brewed with local ingredients: Nossa and Magnífica. We also continued to gain share in the growing premium segment, reinforcing our belief that growth in this segment will be achieved through a superior portfolio of brands, not just in Brazil but globally.
We continue to improve our performance in the US as the result of an evolved commercial strategy focused on premiumization and innovation. Leveraging the momentum built throughout last year, top-line growth in 1Q19 was supported by our best market share trend performance in the past 25 quarters with an estimated market share decline of only 10 bps.

Globally, top-line and bottom line performance continues to benefit from positive brand mix driven by the growth of our unparalleled portfolio of premium brands. Our global brands grew revenues by 8.5% and by 14.0% outside of their home markets, while our High End Company grew revenues by 19.9%.
EBITDA grew by 8.2% in 1Q19 with margin expansion of 86 bps to 39.6%. This was driven by operating leverage from the solid top-line result as well as favorable brand mix, ongoing cost discipline and continued synergies from the SAB combination, partially offset by significant commodity and transactional currency headwinds.
We continue to make good progress toward our ambitious 2025 sustainability goals launched in March 2018, reducing carbon emission across our value chain by 4.5% over the last year. We successfully tested electric vehicles to be added to our fleets in Mexico and Colombia and ordered up to 800 Nikola trucks in the US. This brings us closer to our global goal of reducing carbon emissions by 25% across our entire value chain by 2025, which is aligned to the UN Sustainable Development Goal for Climate Action.
In addition, we are actively exploring a potential minority stake listing of our Asia Pacific (APAC) business on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Proceeding with a listing will depend on a number of factors, including, but not limited to, valuation and prevailing market conditions.
The merits of this initiative are based upon the creation of an APAC champion in the consumer goods space. Furthermore, our superior portfolio of brands and leadership position in the beer industry provide an attractive platform for potential M&A in the region.
We appreciate that a minority stake listing would accelerate our deleveraging path. Nonetheless, our commitment to reach a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 4x by the end of 2020 is not dependent on the completion of such a transaction.
We continue to believe that our strong commercial plans, best-in-class portfolio of brands, diverse geographic footprint, unparalleled operating efficiency and strong pipeline of committed and talented people position us to continue delivering strong results in 2019 and beyond. We remain committed to leveraging this momentum to lead the global beer category while positioning ourselves to deliver sustainable, long-term growth.

2019 OUTLOOK
(i) Overall Performance: In FY19, we expect to deliver strong revenue and EBITDA growth, driven by the solid performance of our brand portfolio and strong commercial plans. Our growth model is even more focused on category expansion, targeting a more balanced top-line growth between volume and revenue per hl. We expect to deliver revenue per hl growth ahead of inflation based on premiumization and revenue management initiatives, while keeping costs (sum of CoS plus SG&A) below inflation.
(ii) Cost of Sales: We expect CoS per hl to increase by mid-single digits, with currency and commodity headwinds to be offset by cost management initiatives.
(iii) Synergies: We maintain our 3.2 billion USD synergy and cost savings expectation on a constant currency basis as of August 2016. From this total, 547 million USD was reported by former SAB as of 31 March 2016, and 2 491 million USD was captured between 1 April 2016 and 31 March 2019. The balance of roughly 150 million USD is expected to be captured by the end of 2019.
(iv) Net Finance Costs: We expect the average gross debt coupon in FY19 to be between 3.75-4.00%. Net pension interest expenses and accretion expenses including IFRS 16 adjustments (lease reporting) are expected to be approximately 160 million USD per quarter. Net finance costs will continue to be impacted by any gains and losses related to the hedging of our share-based payment programs.
(v) Effective Tax Rate (ETR): We expect the normalized ETR in FY19 to be in the range of 25% to 27%, excluding any gains and losses relating to the hedging of our share-based payment programs.
(vi) Net Capital Expenditure: We expect net capital expenditure of between 4.0 and 4.5 billion USD in FY19.
(vii) Debt: Approximately 44% of our gross debt is denominated in currencies other than the US dollar, principally the Euro. Our optimal capital structure remains a net debt to EBITDA ratio of around 2x. We expect our net debt to EBITDA ratio to be below 4x by the end of 2020.
(viii) Dividends: We expect dividends to be a growing flow over time, although growth in the short term is expected to be modest given our deleveraging commitments.

see & read more on
https://www.ab-inbev.com/content/dam/abinbev/news-media/press-releases/2019/05/1Q19-Press-Release-English-Version-Final.pdf

tijd 10.06
AB InBev EUR 77,22 -1,33 vol. 266.000



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