The market follows long repeating cycles that push capital into and out of natural resource markets. But what if the commodity cycle was actually part of a larger cycle -- one that has come to encompass nearly every asset class imaginable? This "carry regime" has pushed valuations across much of the market to record high levels. Is your portfolio prepared for a reversal?

The End of the Cycle Could Finally Be Here

Historically, major shifts to global monetary "plumbing" has ended long periods of commodity undervaluation. Could this be happening again? A few years ago, we expected the global monetary regime change to come from BRIC nations. Now, we think it is coming from the United States itself. The Administration has made references to monetary reforms -- dubbed the Mar A Lago accords that represent the most radical shifts in generations. Regardless of whether they end up working or not, a monetary regime change is likely close at hand.

What Should You Expect?

In our latest commentary, On Commodities, Carry Regimes and Changes to Global Monetary Systems, we examine just how interconnected so many of today's trades truly are. Mag 7, passive investing, growth, momentum, hedge funds and private equity are all tied up in the global "carry regime." Changes to monetary regimes have historically caused a large carry unwind -- usually with huge results. Natural resource equities have been left out of the "carry trade," and we believe are one the few areas that offer protection from a carry unwind.

In our commentary, we discuss just how these cycles have worked, what has caused them to end, and what will likely bring about a new period of commodity outperformance. It could happen sooner than you realize. Don’t miss this essential analysis from Goehring& Rozencwajg.

Download our Q4 2024 commentary for insight into:

Why commodities and technology have moved in opposite directions for 100 years.
Why imbalances have always led to changes in the "plumbing" of the global financial system.
Why the Administration represents some of the most radical monetary thinking in generations.
How you can protect yourself, and potentially profit.

Access our Q4 2024 market commentary here.

We appreciate your interest and continued support.

Sincerely,
Adam
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