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Beleggingsadvies 28/07/2008 08:16
Solid performance in Q2; sudden decline Air volumes in June, Road volumes remain strong.
Group
Operational revenue growth 7.5%
Operating income resilient
Strong operating cash flow

Express
Operational revenue growth overall 10.7%; core volume growth 6.9%
Sudden pressure on volume growth in June; recovering somewhat in July
Sharply increasing fuel costs in quarter; time lag effect costs € 7 million
Strong growth in Emerging Markets at 18.3%
Operating income at constant fx up 5.3%

Mail
Emerging Mail & Parcels operational revenue growth at 15.6%
Operating income robust, but under pressure from expected volume declines and higher salary costs
Agreement with unions on collective labour agreement

Outlook
Full year 2008 expected to develop within outlook range, albeit at low end
Express cost savings programme € 100 - € 125 million announced; fully realised in 2010
First indication cash generation programme; € 300 - € 400 million by end 2009 from real estate and working capital.

Key figures Q2 As reported At constant fx 2007
Q2 2008 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 % Change
€ mil € mil € mil
Group
Revenues 2,809 2,689 2,890 7.5%
EBITDA 410 415 411 -1.0%
Operating income (EBIT) 324 330 331 0.3%
Profit from continuing operations 207 233 214 -8.2%
Profit from discontinued operations 0 11 0
Profit attributable to the shareholders 205 244 212 -13.1%
Net cash from operating activities 215 139 227 63.3%
Express
Revenues 1,716 1,608 1,780 10.7%
EBITDA 209 203 209 3.0%
Operating income (EBIT) 153 151 159 5.3%
Mail
Revenues 1,028 1,022 1,044 2.2%
EBITDA 201 214 202 -5.6%
Operating income (EBIT) 173 181 174 -3.8%

CEO Peter Bakker comments:
“The second quarter of 2008 has seen a shift in trading volumes in Express. In April and May the volumes in Europe were in line with the preceding quarters, but in June we have experienced a slow down in the premium Express volumes in Europe. The sharp rise in fuel prices during the quarter and the general economic outlook have impacted both our customers and us. The resilience of TNT is however best demonstrated by the fact that the volumes in our European Road Network have continued to grow throughout the quarter and in June. Also our emerging market activities in Brazil, China and India, with the connecting lanes to Europe, have all shown double-digit growth.

In Mail the results were robust. Volume declines were at the expected levels, with substitution in letter mail being the main driver. It was pleasing to see that after a long negotiation period the Unions and TNT Post have agreed a new collective labour agreement and avoided a national mail strike. This agreement creates the framework for more market conform labour conditions, through a separate Production labour agreement. The short term impact of the CLA has seen an increase in wage costs that contributed to the expected decline in the operating margin at Mail in Q2.

The quality and mix of our network, combined with cost saving programmes as announced today, give me confidence in our performance, also under more difficult circumstances. The development in Brazil, China and India, continue to show the differentiating nature of our strategy is working.”




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